Elderly Dependence. Longitudinal Approach to Risk Factors

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Christophe Bergouignan

Abstract

The evolution of elderly dependence may be seen as a bunch of events sequences.


This global approach by cohort, leads to a chain of conditionnal risks. Their scale is function of some main events and several variables which value is stable after 65 years old.


Some of those main events are called endogeneous (steps of dependence evolution for example) because the probability of their occurrence grows with the occurrence of an earlier studied event and some others are called exogeneous (transformations of matrimonial status for example) because the probability of their occurrence is a priori independent of an earlier studied event. In that way, all exogeneous phenomenon is supposed to be risk factor to an endogeneous phenomenon, and several endogeneous phenomena are supposed to be risk factors to other endogeneous phenomena.


The suggested system forms a dynamic resonance between risks scale and their realization, leading elderly to the largest dependence. The associated growth of vulnerability and dependence is patterned considering all cares which adequation is estimated with their ability to curb the autonomy loss process.


Demographic analysis toolkits are a way to build a network of stacked probabilities tables which are functions of time flown since exogeneous or endogeneous studied events and potential cares have occured. The subdivision of cohorts along exogeneous variables which value is stable after 65 years old, gives them the best homogeneity attainable.


The determination of datas required for this work is disputed considering the essential exactness, the delay before the first results, the continuously of observation and the costs of collection. Qualities of the different type of surveys conceivables (retrospective or prospective) and their sample base are examinated. Abilities of the use of large admistration data bases and the conditions for extrapolations beyond the population of aged registred in those files, are also considered. Then some criteria to form information systems about elderly dependence and its factors are suggested.

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How to Cite
Bergouignan, C. (2000). Elderly Dependence. Longitudinal Approach to Risk Factors. Stanovnistvo, 38(1-4), 41–57. https://doi.org/10.2298/STNV0004041B
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References

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