Functional Data Analysis in Forecasting Serbian Fertility
A new approach, combining functional data analysis and principal components decomposition in order to forecasting demographic rates, introduced recently by Hyndman and his associates, is tested on official data series of Serbian age-specific fertility rates available for period 1950-2009. The original concept of the method with its extensions and improvements is applied to region-specific data for the country (Central Serbia and Vojvodina). One of the most important benefits of the method reflected in confirmation that is essentially to model and forecast more than one principal component in order to adequately address sources of variation in fertility. Similarly, modelling and forecasting fertility rates with regards to age and not total fertility rates shows how important it is for the recognized tendency of postponing childbearing in Serbia to be included in coefficients of functional time series. Besides, the method is based completely on evaluation of historical data, without subjective views of forecasters having to be taken into account. Coherent functional product-ratio forecasts of two regions proved to be highly convergent on the long-term not allowing for outliers to contaminate the forecast.
ALHO, J. M. (2001). "Stochastic Forecast of the Lithuanian Population 2001-2050", Research Report P98-1023-R, European Union’s Phare ACE Research Project.
HYNDMAN, R. J., H. BOOTH (2008). "Stochastic Population Forecasts Using Functional Data Models for Mortality, Fertility and Migration", International Journal of Forecasting, 24(3), 323–342.
HYNDMAN, R. J., H. BOOTH, F. YASMEEN (2011). "Coherent Mortality Forecasting: The Product-Ratio Method with Functional Time Series Models", Working Paper 01/11 (Clayton: Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics)
HYNDMAN, R. J., H. L. SHANG (2009). "Forecasting Functional Time Series", Journal of the Korean Statistical Society, 38(3), 199–221.
HYNDMAN, R. J., H. L. SHANG (2010). "Rainbow Plots, Bagplots and Boxplots for Functional Data", Journal of Computational & Graphical Statistics, 19(1), 29–45.
HYNDMAN, R. J., M. S. ULLAH (2007). "Robust Forecasting of Mortality and Fertility Rates: A Functional Data Approach", Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, 51, 4942–4956.
KEILMAN, N., D. Q. PHAM (2000), "Predictive Intervals for Age-Specific Fertility", European Journal of Population, 16, 41-66.
KEILMAN, N., D. Q. PHAM, A. HETLAND (2002). "Why Population Forecasts Should Be Probabilistic – Illustrated by the Case of Norway", Demographic Research, 6, 408-454.
LEE, R. D. (1974). "Forecasting Births in Post-Transition Populations: Stochastic Renewal with Serially Correlated Fertility", Journal of the American Statistical Association, 69(347), 607-617.
LEE, R. D. (1993). "Modeling and Forecasting the Time Series of U.S. Fertility: Age Distribution, Range, and Ultimate Level", International Journal of Forecasting, 9, 187−202.
LEE, R. D. (1998). "Probabilistic Approaches to Population Forecasting", Population and Development Review 24, Supplement: Frontiers of Population Forecasting.
LEE, R. D., S. TULJAPURKAR (1994). "Stochastic Population Forecasts for the United States: Beyond High, Medium, and Low", Journal of the American Statistical Association, 89(428), 1175-1189.
NIKITOVIĆ, V. (2004). Tačnost projekcija stanovništva Srbije (Beograd: Geografski institut "Jovan Cvijić" SANU).
NIKITOVIĆ, V. (2007). "Stohastička projekcija stanovništva Centralne Srbije na osnovu empirijskih projekcionih grešaka", Stanovništvo, 45(1), 7-31.
NIKITOVIĆ, V. (2010). Demografska budućnost Srbije: Imigracija kao izvesnost? (Beograd: Službeni glasnik, Institut društvenih nauka).
RAŠEVIĆ, M. (2009). "Populaciona politika: stanje i očekivanja", Stanovništvo, 47(1), 53-66.
RAŠEVIĆ, M., K. SEDLECKI (2011). "Pitanje postojanja abortusne kulture u Srbiji", Stanovništvo, 49(1), 7-21.
STATISTICS NETHERLANDS (2005). Changing Population of Europe: Uncertain Future (Hague: Statistics Netherlands).
TORRI, T., D. VIGNOLI (2007). "Forecasting the Italian Population, 2005-2055: A Stochastic Approach", Genus, 1-2, 93-118.
WILSON, T., M. BELL (2004). "Australia’s Uncertain Demographic Future", Demographic Research, 11, 194-234.
Published by the Institute of Social Sciences - Demographic Research Centre under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0